THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending August 2019 indicates significant blocks of water surplus in three regions: the East Coast from southern New Hampshire through North Carolina; much of Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas; and Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Surpluses are expected to be extreme to exceptional in the heart of Texas surrounding the Edwards Plateau, eastern Pennsylvania, and coastal North Carolina around Wilmington.
With the exception of the Ohio River Basin where conditions will be relatively normal, deficits will dapple much of the rest of the country though anomalies will be primarily mild to moderate. Pockets of deficit are forecast for the Upper Midwest, Rocky Mountain States, and the West. Deficits may reach severe intensity in western Oregon; and severe to extreme intensity in northwestern Wyoming, the western Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, and central and southeastern Colorado. Generally moderate deficits are forecast for much of Minnesota, pockets of Michigan, central Illinois, southern Missouri, eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. In the US Northeast, deficits will be moderate to exceptional in northern New York, and moderate in Vermont, central New Hampshire, and Maine. Deficits in southern Florida are expected to be moderate to severe but may be exceptional in a small pocket of the northern Everglades.
Outside the contiguous US, moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Puerto Rico. In Hawaii, surpluses are forecast for western Hawai’a and western Moloka’i, and moderate deficits on Maui.
A patchwork of conditions is forecast for Alaska including: surpluses on the Alaska Peninsula reaching inland, the upper reaches of the Copper and Susitna Rivers, and in the far north southeast of Barrow; and, deficits in the Seward Peninsula and into western Alaska, around Anchorage, and the Alexander Archipelago in the Alaska Panhandle.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
Though the extent of exceptional surpluses is forecast to shrink from December through February, widespread and intense surpluses will persist in the center of […]